Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb85…3ee2 other 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,729 (+8%) realized +$4,663 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate67%39W / 19L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$938per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,091
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$2,688
sports 45% +$7,301
world 3% −$209
crypto 2% +$57
economics 1% −$29
politics 1% +$265
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -21.3% -28.8% 58% 32% -9.2%
≤30d 31 -21.3% -28.8% 58% 32% -9.2%
≤90d 31 -21.3% -28.8% 58% 32% -9.2%
all 58 -12.2% -20.5% 67% 38% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 38% -1.8%
10% -28.1% 26% -11.2%
15% -35.1% 16% -19.8%
20% -41.4% 10% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,336) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$300 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$1,775
Realized+$4,663
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses39 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage232d
Avg bet$938
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1,500 $1,551 +$51 (+3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 86¢ 94¢ $189 $206 +$17 (+9%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,703 +$93 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$90 -88%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,867 +$281 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,273 +$383 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,281 +$541 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$61 -60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,762 +$27 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$99 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,336 +$1,556 +116%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $556 −$270 -49%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,110 +$487 +44%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,115 −$1,015 -91%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $914 +$1,127 +123%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $655 −$488 -75%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,011 +$3 +0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $457 +$23 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,677 −$2,671 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,350 +$124 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $611 +$46 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $511 +$74 +14%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,210 +$210 +17%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $401 +$20 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $505 +$220 +44%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Feb 01 $1,100 +$362 +33%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 17 $903 +$66 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jan 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 31 $520 +$92 +18%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Dec 29 $449 +$29 +6%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Dec 14 $500 +$32 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $500 +$56 +11%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 09 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 04 $1,000 +$92 +9%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 13 $370 +$265 +72%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $3 +$1 +28%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $6,367 +$18 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 05 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $2,044 +$718 +35%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $2,222 +$1,077 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $2,023 +$20 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $178 16m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 24m
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,001 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $501 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $3,703 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $864 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,004 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $915 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $801 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $38 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $12 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $568 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 89¢ $890 29h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $41 29h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $694 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,003 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $28 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,762 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,775.25 · official $1,775.25 (match) · 197 history records