Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CB 0xcb84…60cd crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,782per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 97% −$17
crypto 2% $0
other 1% +$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤30d 2 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤90d 4 +2.2% -7.6% 100% 0% -6.1%
all 9 +1.3% -8.4% 78% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage224d
Avg bet$1,782
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jun 24 $32 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jun 24 $67 +$4 +7%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 05 $63 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Feb 24 $126 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $17,341 −$17 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Jan 19 $9 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $81 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 88d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $32 101d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $33 104d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $67 106d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $63 117d
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $66 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $126 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $126 129d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $17,324 147d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $17,341 147d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 97¢ $9 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.24 · official $81.24 (match) · 19 history records