Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb82…4bf9 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$440 (+0%) realized +$440 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate54%20W / 17L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$3,020per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% +$2,415
sports 35% +$977
other 7% +$1,359
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 +21.3% +9.8% 33% 33% +1.9%
≤90d 23 -2.4% -11.7% 43% 26% -2.2%
all 37 -1.4% -10.8% 54% 24% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 24% -5.8%
10% -19.3% 16% -14.8%
15% ← realistic here -27.1% 14% -23.0%
20% -34.3% 14% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$2,919) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
44.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$304 vs −$83 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.59 per $1 lost it wins $4.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$498
Realized+$440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses20 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$3,020
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $498 $498 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 02 $10,418 −$85 -1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,320 +$1,680 +72%
CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC: Both Teams to Score May 27 $91 +$61 +67%
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 22 $16 −$2 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $110 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $5 $0 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $10,046 +$2,455 +24%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $6,368 +$310 +5%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $300 +$42 +14%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $252 −$4 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 10 $171 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $93 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 03 $5 +$5 +108%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-04-01? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $6 +$4 +75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 22 $162 −$162 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte Mar 20 $1,048 −$1,048 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $7,204 +$5 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $3,594 +$1 +0%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $537 +$87 +16%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $1,745 +$1,238 +71%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $24,839 +$33 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $4,000 +$44 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $25,676 +$100 +0%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th Mar 17 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $10,413 +$8 +0%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $14 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 3 Winner Mar 15 $8 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 4 Winner Mar 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $2,919 +$3 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $514 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $499 1h
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $100 15h
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $100 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $1,123 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $5 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $71 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $5 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $10 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $20 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $4 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $41 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $21 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $10 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $10 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $10 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $10 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $1 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $1 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $10 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $1 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $1,181 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 40¢ $120 17d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 40¢ $240 17d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 40¢ $49 18d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 40¢ $9 18d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 40¢ $5 18d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 40¢ $3 18d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 40¢ $4 18d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 40¢ $67 18d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 40¢ $6 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $498.25 · official $498.25 (match) · 3500 history records