Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb82…0675 sports 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,380 (-9%) realized −$1,427 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%85W / 117L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$30
14 days−$772
30 days−$983
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$1,460
world 33% +$176
other 3% −$72
finance 1% −$9
politics 0% −$22
weather 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +10.1% -0.3% 55% 55% -10.6%
≤30d 129 -2.8% -12.0% 47% 42% -16.6%
≤90d 202 -8.9% -17.6% 42% 38% -18.2%
all 202 -8.9% -17.6% 42% 38% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 38% -18.2%
10% -25.5% 35% -26.0%
15% -32.7% 32% -33.2%
20% -39.3% 26% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$37 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$1,427
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses85 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions2
Markets (closed)202 / 204
History coverage53d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 68¢ $77 $108 +$31 (+41%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 40¢ 72¢ $20 $36 +$16 (+81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $79 −$1 -2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $82 −$81 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 +$17 +426%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $58 +$30 +52%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $45 +$30 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 +$8 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $22 +$32 +143%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $34 −$12 -36%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $26 +$10 +38%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $29 +$16 +54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $19 +$10 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$22 -45%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $32 +$9 +27%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $33 −$1 -3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $22 +$11 +48%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 08 $99 −$97 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $55 −$54 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $86 +$33 +38%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $21 +$15 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $110 −$108 -98%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $699 −$642 -92%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $69 −$30 -44%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $802 −$34 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $1,964 +$143 +7%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 07 $10 +$21 +216%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $21 −$11 -53%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $31 −$26 -84%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $21 +$11 +51%
Will Reds win? Jun 06 $21 −$21 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 05 $142 −$140 -98%
Angola vs. Mauritania: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $607 +$132 +22%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $86 +$53 +61%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Bora Sengul Jun 05 $549 +$60 +11%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $35 +$51 +143%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $22 +$14 +62%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $3 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $28 −$28 -99%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $21 +$10 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 40¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $78 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $78 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $79 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $82 14h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 42¢ $22 17h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 97¢ $20 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $17 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 19h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $2 19h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $2 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $54 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $54 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $22 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 49¢ $22 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $45 41h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 92¢ $45 41h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $29 42h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 42h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $34 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $26 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $19 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $18 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.04 · official $144.04 (match) · 524 history records