Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb81…e68b other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$138 (-10%) realized −$64 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%15W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$19
other 35% −$174
world 4% +$12
weather 4% −$53
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +12.2% +1.6% 32% 32% -6.8%
≤30d 31 +12.2% +1.6% 32% 32% -6.8%
≤90d 67 -19.4% -27.1% 22% 22% -19.0%
all 67 -19.4% -27.1% 22% 22% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 22% -19.0%
10% -34.0% 22% -26.8%
15% -40.4% 19% -33.8%
20% -46.3% 19% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$13 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 52
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage73d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $113 $86 −$27 (-24%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 2¢ $49 $2 −$47 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $66 −$65 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$42 +413%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$101 +980%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $38 −$6 -17%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $23 +$21 +91%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -90%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $63 −$62 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +161%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $153 +$45 +29%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$11 -52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $61 +$66 +108%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $43 +$58 +137%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $43 +$29 +68%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$37 +365%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $49 −$48 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $4 +$5 +134%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 22? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 22? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 3 Sporting CP? Apr 15 $5 −$3 -64%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 0 - 2 Sporting CP? Apr 15 $5 −$4 -76%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 2 Real Madrid CF? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 3 Real Madrid CF? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 2 Real Madrid CF? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Sporting CP leading at halftime? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 3 Sporting CP? Apr 15 $5 −$3 -61%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 2 Sporting CP? Apr 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 14 $24 +$37 +156%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $50 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $66 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $20 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 8¢ $5 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $111 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 9¢ $10 27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 31h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 34h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $24 34h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 34h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 34h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 34h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $45 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $23 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $63 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $102 3d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $33 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $52 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $52 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.96 · official $89.06 · 119 history records