Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CB 0xcb7e…d175 sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$414 (+15%) realized +$417 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$530
7 days+$434
14 days+$490
30 days+$490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$473
other 7% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +10.3% -0.2% 50% 50% +5.9%
≤30d 27 +12.0% +1.3% 52% 52% +7.3%
≤90d 27 +12.0% +1.3% 52% 52% +7.3%
all 27 +12.0% +1.3% 52% 52% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 52% +7.3%
10% -8.4% 52% -3.0%
15% -17.2% 52% -12.3%
20% -25.3% 52% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$92 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$417
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage10d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 48¢ 46¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 +$105 +105%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $117 +$133 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $73 +$58 +80%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $100 +$140 +139%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $132 +$201 +152%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$131 +129%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $98 −$96 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 +$101 +101%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $96 −$95 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $86 −$85 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $112 +$89 +79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $100 +$212 +213%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $116 −$114 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $100 +$114 +114%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $199 −$199 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $100 +$57 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $102 5m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $100 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $81 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $152 14h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $117 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $270 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $51 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $30 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $102 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $73 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $240 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $100 33h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $132 42h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $98 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $100 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $96 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $86 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $112 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 31¢ $100 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 4d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 52¢ $51 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $116 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $100 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $199 6d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $100 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $100 7d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $156 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.87 · official $96.88 (match) · 45 history records