Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

CB 0xcb7b…5aa5 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$50 (+28%) realized +$45 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-1.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+8.5%	-1.8%	50%	50%	-14.1%
≤30d	4	+8.5%	-1.8%	50%	50%	-14.1%
≤90d	4	+8.5%	-1.8%	50%	50%	-14.1%
all	4	+8.5%	-1.8%	50%	50%	-14.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.8%	50%	-14.1%
10%	-11.2%	50%	-22.3%
15%	-19.8%	50%	-29.8%
20%	-27.7%	50%	-36.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$33 vs −$36 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.91 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$45

Realized+$45

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26?	Down	26¢	30¢	$40	$45	+$5 (+13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 26	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 26	$26	−$21	-80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET	Jun 26	$52	+$61	+116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET	Jun 26	$5	+$5	+97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$52	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26?	BUY Down	26¢	$42	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET	SELL Up	82¢	$113	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET	SELL Up	87¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.38 · official $45.38 (match) · 15 history records