Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb7a…1839 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$131 (+9%) realized +$152 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$87
14 days+$109
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$61
sports 33% +$115
tech 19% +$62
crypto 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +42.6% +29.0% 50% 50% +29.1%
≤30d 12 +3.9% -6.0% 50% 50% +1.0%
≤90d 12 +3.9% -6.0% 50% 50% +1.0%
all 12 +3.9% -6.0% 50% 50% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 50% +1.0%
10% -15.0% 50% -8.7%
15% -23.2% 50% -17.5%
20% -30.8% 33% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$49 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage21d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 64¢ 63¢ $192 $190 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$8 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$94 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$60 -59%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $102 +$64 +63%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$43 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $101 +$42 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $101 +$55 +54%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $93 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $42 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 100¢ $166 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 60¢ $102 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $96 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $144 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Jakub Mensik 100¢ $143 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 70¢ $101 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $156 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $101 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jakub Mensik 44¢ $102 19d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 64¢ $195 20d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 20d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 20d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.31 · official $371.31 (match) · 44 history records