Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb7a…f7af other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$25 (-10%) realized −$26 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$7
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$14
sports 32% −$7
world 8% $0
tech 8% $0
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.2% -66.7% 25% 25% -35.1%
≤30d 7 -34.7% -40.9% 43% 43% -17.8%
≤90d 9 -24.3% -31.6% 44% 44% -14.5%
all 14 -15.0% -23.1% 43% 43% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 43% -21.1%
10% -30.5% 43% -28.6%
15% -37.2% 43% -35.5%
20% -43.3% 21% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage116d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$9 +47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$5 +43%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $26 +$18 +67%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 May 14 $10 +$12 +124%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: Both Teams to Score Feb 24 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $15 +$6 +43%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 24 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $38 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $11 9d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 37d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 37d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 37d
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 44¢ $10 39d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY No 51¢ $10 39d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 115d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $8 115d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 115d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 116d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $5 116d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $21 116d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $21 116d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 99¢ $21 116d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 99¢ $21 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.94 · official $47.94 (match) · 31 history records