Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb79…9f46 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%21W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$4
crypto 31% −$3
sports 13% −$17
politics 7% +$2
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 35 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 0% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -12.1%
10% -20.2% 0% -20.5%
15% -27.9% 0% -28.2%
20% -34.9% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses21 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage586d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in April? May 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? Apr 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? Jan 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in December? Jan 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Spain beat Switzerland? Dec 02 $105 +$2 +2%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by January 31, 2025? Feb 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 24-31? Feb 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? Jan 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 29 $31 −$6 -20%
Will Valencia CF win La Liga? Dec 29 $29 −$10 -33%
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024? Dec 12 $42 −$2 -6%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Dec 11 $86 −$3 -4%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Nov 26 $13 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Nov 26 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Republicans control 221 seats in the House after the election? Nov 26 $30 +$2 +6%
Buccaneers vs. Giants Nov 24 $12 $0 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Nov 24 $17 $0 -2%
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates? Nov 24 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Nov 24 $24 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Nov 21 $19 $0 -2%
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22? Nov 18 $18 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 31d
Will BNB reach $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 63d
Will BNB reach $900 in April? BUY No 100¢ $22 63d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 92d
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $28 93d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $1 122d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 123d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 150d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 151d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $21 151d
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? BUY No 100¢ $3 182d
Will Solana reach $200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $8 183d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $28 183d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 212d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $20 212d
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 24-31? BUY No 100¢ $13 513d
Will Solana dip to $120 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 513d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 518d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 518d
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? SELL No 99¢ $31 520d
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? BUY No 100¢ $31 520d
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 545d
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 545d
Will Valencia CF win La Liga? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 546d
Will Valencia CF win La Liga? BUY Yes 0¢ $29 546d
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024? SELL No 47¢ $40 562d
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024? BUY No 50¢ $42 562d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.96 · official $38.96 (match) · 76 history records