Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CB 0xcb79…6a7c other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$93 (+1%) realized +$124 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%20W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$29
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$36
world 9% +$11
finance 3% +$3
economics 3% +$2
sports 0% +$9
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 15 -19.1% -26.8% 73% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 17 -16.8% -24.7% 76% 0% -8.6%
all 24 +11.6% +1.0% 83% 17% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 17% -8.4%
10% -8.7% 17% -17.2%
15% -17.5% 17% -25.2%
20% -25.6% 8% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.02 per $1 lost it wins $15.02
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$1,203
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses20 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage215d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Denis Višinský: 3+ goals No 99¢ 97¢ $1,232 $1,202 −$30 (-2%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals Jun 18 $1,233 +$12 +1%
Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1,233 +$12 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $521 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Nigeria? Jun 10 $521 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Armenia 0 - 3 Moldova? Jun 09 $521 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $490 +$10 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Kosovo 2 - 3 Andorra? Jun 08 $495 +$5 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Gibraltar 3 - 3 Cayman Islands? Jun 07 $495 +$5 +1%
Colts vs. Chiefs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Flames vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Predators Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Belarus 3 - 3 Syria? Jun 06 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 06 $260 +$3 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 22 $255 +$2 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Mar 12 $240 +$3 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 16 $260 +$4 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 06 $255 +$4 +1%
Bucks vs. Spurs Feb 03 $4 +$2 +45%
Bucks vs. Kings Jan 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Titans vs. Browns Dec 17 $2 +$3 +170%
South Florida vs. Navy Nov 22 $3 +$8 +300%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Denis Višinský: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,232 1h
Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,233 15h
Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,233 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $521 7d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Nigeria? BUY No 99¢ $521 8d
Exact Score: Armenia 0 - 3 Moldova? BUY No 99¢ $521 9d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Northern Ireland? BUY No 98¢ $490 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 11d
Exact Score: Kosovo 2 - 3 Andorra? BUY No 99¢ $495 11d
Exact Score: Gibraltar 3 - 3 Cayman Islands? BUY No 99¢ $495 12d
Exact Score: Belarus 3 - 3 Syria? BUY No 99¢ $495 12d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 72d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $260 88d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $255 98d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $240 121d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $260 131d
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $255 133d
Bucks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 69¢ $4 153d
Bucks vs. Kings BUY Bucks 69¢ $5 164d
Hurricanes vs. Predators BUY Predators 37¢ $4 182d
Titans vs. Browns BUY Titans 37¢ $2 192d
Flames vs. Hurricanes BUY Flames 30¢ $2 199d
Colts vs. Chiefs BUY Colts 39¢ $1 207d
South Florida vs. Navy BUY Navy 25¢ $3 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,202.95 · official $1,202.95 (match) · 54 history records