Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb76…3bc1 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$2
other 14% +$2
sports 3% $0
politics 3% +$1
economics 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 19 +0.0% -9.5% 32% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 19 +0.0% -9.5% 32% 0% -9.4%
all 40 -1.6% -11.0% 40% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -9.2%
10% -19.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage473d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 73¢ 74¢ $45 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 +10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $59 −$4 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $43 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $85 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $3 $0 -4%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 31 $2 $0 +10%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $14 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 19 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say 'Epstein' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $13 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Nuggets Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-04? Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $45 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $25 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $40 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $48 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $48 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.45 · official $45.45 (match) · 129 history records