Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcb71…4371 sports 627 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,626 (-12%) realized −$22,145 · open −$481
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%306W / 312L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day66.1pace
Fees−$2,727est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,726now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,495
7 days−$9,583
14 days−$12,876
30 days−$17,027
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$17,452
other 6% −$1,153
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -3.8% -13.0% 51% 47% -22.0%
≤30d 456 -8.3% -17.0% 50% 47% -18.4%
≤90d 618 -7.1% -16.0% 50% 48% -18.7%
all 618 -7.1% -16.0% 50% 48% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 48% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 44% -26.4%
15% -31.3% 37% -33.5%
20% -38.1% 28% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$226 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$2,726
Realized−$22,145
Unrealized−$481
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses306 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$2,727
Open positions9
Markets (closed)618 / 627
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$311
Trades / day66.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 618 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 77¢ 74¢ $924 $894 −$30 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 42¢ 43¢ $420 $430 +$10 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 73¢ 72¢ $365 $362 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 31¢ 26¢ $310 $265 −$45 (-15%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $200 $255 +$55 (+27%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 24¢ $670 $242 −$428 (-64%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 58¢ $200 $131 −$69 (-34%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 68¢ 100¢ $68 $100 +$32 (+47%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 57¢ 52¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 235 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $42 +$8 +20%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $64 +$36 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $340 +$260 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,786 −$729 -41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $164 +$58 +36%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $358 +$142 +40%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $249 −$245 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $704 −$565 -80%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2,457 −$2,450 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $512 −$432 -84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $553 −$552 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $6 +$33 +549%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $228 −$225 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $140 −$118 -84%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $264 −$261 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $602 +$193 +32%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $230 −$225 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$27 +118%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $63 −$15 -24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $436 −$145 -33%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $248 −$116 -47%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $117 +$75 +64%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $743 −$462 -62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $251 +$129 +51%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $91 +$40 +43%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $139 +$121 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11 +$19 +178%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,161 −$416 -19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4,918 −$2,298 -47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $82 −$77 -94%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $237 −$235 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,614 +$617 +38%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $527 +$11 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $403 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $770 +$179 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $447 −$307 -69%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,945 −$560 -29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $967 −$263 -27%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $323 −$12 -4%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $128 −$105 -82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,275 −$1,270 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $100 −$11 -11%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $206 −$144 -70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,148 −$1,190 -55%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,047 +$853 +81%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $3,800 −$1,572 -41%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,113 −$258 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $657 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $155 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 73¢ $368 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 31¢ $298 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $427 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 31¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $775 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 57¢ $51 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $201 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $79 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $69 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $70 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 64¢ $222 4h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 83¢ $42 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $64 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 49¢ $124 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $39 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 83¢ $1,032 5h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $249 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $284 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $57 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 46¢ $920 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $45 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $75 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $144 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $144 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $43 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,726.20 · official $2,723.95 (match) · 3500 history records