Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb70…bd53 sports 449 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$244 (+2%) realized +$245 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%227W / 220L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$107
14 days+$116
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$174
sports 38% +$131
crypto 4% −$56
world 1% −$1
politics 1% +$22
finance 0% −$12
weather 0% −$3
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +26.3% +14.3% 67% 67% +40.0%
≤30d 43 -2.1% -11.4% 53% 47% +20.3%
≤90d 193 -12.0% -20.3% 48% 45% -24.9%
all 447 -0.7% -10.1% 51% 47% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 47% -7.3%
10% -18.7% 41% -16.2%
15% -26.6% 31% -24.3%
20% -33.8% 22% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$245
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses227 / 220
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)447 / 449
History coverage143d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $27 +$23 +82%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 −$2 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $60 +$43 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 +$31 +105%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $17 +$12 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$6 +109%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$2 -50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +97%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$2 +48%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 +$1 +32%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $5 +$7 +134%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $7 +$5 +70%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $4 −$4 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $3 +$1 +34%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 29 $3 $0 +7%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 28 $6 −$1 -13%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 24 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $5 −$4 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $9 +$1 +12%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $2 $0 -0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $4 +$1 +30%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $1 $0 +26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $4 +$1 +36%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (+1.5) May 21 $3 $0 -7%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 21 $2 −$1 -99%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 21 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 21 $1 $0 -27%
Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 21 $4 $0 -6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 21 $5 +$5 +109%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 21 $5 +$3 +70%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 20 $4 +$4 +118%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $3 +$1 +37%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $3 $0 +9%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Draw at halftime? May 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $3 $0 +10%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$6 +115%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 17 $7 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $4 +$3 +93%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $36 55m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $34 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $27 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $35 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $103 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $60 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 8h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $17 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 39¢ $2 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $3 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 83¢ $5 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 4d
Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $3 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 61¢ $4 6d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $12 8d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $5 8d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 58¢ $7 10d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $2 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik BUY Alex de Minaur 81¢ $4 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev SELL Andrey Rublev 100¢ $4 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 74¢ $3 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder $0 19d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 93¢ $3 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.92 · official $74.93 (match) · 1064 history records