Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb70…01c0 other 449 markets active 1h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$13 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate59%254W / 176L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$60
14 days−$130
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$316
sports 31% −$558
world 13% +$27
finance 10% +$524
crypto 3% −$236
politics 2% +$50
culture 2% −$183
weather 1% −$77
tech 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +18.7% +7.4% 60% 47% +0.3%
≤30d 76 -1.2% -10.6% 61% 34% -10.6%
≤90d 259 +0.9% -8.7% 63% 42% -8.1%
all 430 -4.0% -13.1% 59% 43% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 43% -9.8%
10% -21.5% 31% -18.5%
15% -29.0% 19% -26.3%
20% -36.0% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses254 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions17
Markets (closed)430 / 449
History coverage201d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 68¢ $62 $66 +$4 (+7%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 77¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 81¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+12%)
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 76¢ $23 $31 +$7 (+32%)
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 32¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 44¢ $22 $22 −$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 51¢ $24 $15 −$9 (-36%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 46¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 28¢ 3¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next? Jun 16 $47 −$28 -61%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $27 −$2 -9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $66 −$4 -6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $27 +$13 +47%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $63 +$11 +17%
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +107%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $23 +$4 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $65 +$19 +29%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $36 −$5 -15%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 09 $33 +$2 +5%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $29 +$28 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $52 +$2 +3%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $196 −$3 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr Jun 07 $31 −$26 -84%
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $84 −$1 -1%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $14 +$11 +81%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $43 +$5 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $112 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $74 +$4 +5%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 05 $20 +$2 +12%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $156 −$15 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $52 +$15 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $13 −$8 -61%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $177 +$4 +2%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 02 $62 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $78 +$9 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $197 −$136 -69%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$1 -14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $19 +$31 +158%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $172 −$10 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $76 +$9 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $124 +$10 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $159 +$106 +67%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $437 −$5 -1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $88 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 28 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? May 27 $51 −$21 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $58 +$5 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next? SELL No 27¢ $18 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Under 21¢ $25 10h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $27 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 52¢ $62 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $48 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $50 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $66 10h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 66¢ $40 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $74 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 18h
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 68¢ $34 18h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 45¢ $27 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 40¢ $7 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $20 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 38¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $7 2d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $16 3d
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $9 3d
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $9 3d
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 45¢ $23 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $20 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.81 · official $349.88 (match) · 1451 history records