Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb6f…317f world 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,418 (+20%) realized −$828 · open +$3,246
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate39%29W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,942now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days−$629
14 days−$651
30 days−$664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% +$2,727
politics 3% −$56
crypto 3% −$98
other 1% +$8
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -13.9% -22.1% 18% 8% -18.3%
≤30d 75 -6.9% -15.8% 39% 23% -16.7%
≤90d 75 -6.9% -15.8% 39% 23% -16.7%
all 75 -6.9% -15.8% 39% 23% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 23% -16.7%
10% -23.8% 20% -24.6%
15% -31.2% 12% -31.9%
20% -37.9% 11% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$23 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$4,942
Realized−$828
Unrealized+$3,246
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses29 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)75 / 86
History coverage35d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 28¢ 90¢ $1,438 $4,681 +$3,243 (+225%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 73¢ 81¢ $52 $57 +$6 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 91¢ 90¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 85¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 70¢ 53¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+52%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 39¢ 44¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $25 +$36 +145%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $53 +$30 +57%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $36 −$12 -33%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $338 +$98 +29%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $145 −$83 -57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $864 −$4 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $799 −$16 -2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 13 $138 +$4 +3%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $57 −$11 -20%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? Jun 13 $34 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $124 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $1,267 −$197 -16%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $65 −$8 -12%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $6 −$1 -23%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $25 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 13 $95 +$3 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $156 −$4 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Jun 13 $16 −$2 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $446 −$38 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $114 −$13 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $279 −$16 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $221 −$24 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $33 −$4 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $18 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $20 −$4 -21%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 12 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 12 $100 −$20 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $271 −$18 -6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $90 −$24 -26%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $150 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $50 −$10 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -73%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $210 −$94 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $89 +$58 +65%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $23 −$7 -29%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $74 −$68 -93%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $114 −$12 -11%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $26 $0 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 02 $104 +$4 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -13%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$7 +66%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $70 −$26 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $221 +$51 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $10 0m
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 0m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $15 2m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $5 59m
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $73 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $62 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 49¢ $61 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $25 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 69¢ $61 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 14¢ $7 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $44 11h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 35¢ $17 12h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $16 12h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 34¢ $14 12h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 91¢ $9 12h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 91¢ $20 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 12h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 63¢ $100 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 66¢ $79 12h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,941.88 · official $4,941.83 (match) · 450 history records