Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb6b…c7f7 weather 1237 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$715 (-1%) realized −$707 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate56%683W / 529L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,969now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$383
14 days−$344
30 days−$790
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$798
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -1.5% -10.9% 84% 15% -8.9%
≤30d 247 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 15% -10.5%
≤90d 1212 -12.3% -20.6% 56% 19% -10.2%
all 1212 -12.3% -20.6% 56% 19% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 19% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 8% -18.8%
15% -35.2% 5% -26.6%
20% -41.5% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,969
Realized−$707
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses683 / 529
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1212 / 1237
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 1212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? No 93¢ 100¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 93¢ 100¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 20? No 92¢ 96¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 19? No 93¢ 94¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? No 92¢ 91¢ $100 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 94¢ 93¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 19? No 95¢ 93¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? No 95¢ 93¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? No 95¢ 93¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 20? No 94¢ 92¢ $68 $66 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? No 89¢ 86¢ $62 $59 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? No 92¢ 90¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 20? No 91¢ 92¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 19? No 89¢ 94¢ $54 $56 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 19? No 90¢ 90¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18? No 94¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? No 81¢ 80¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? No 85¢ 84¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? No 93¢ 93¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? No 85¢ 100¢ $21 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? No 81¢ 88¢ $19 $20 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? No 94¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? No 94¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? No 91¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $56 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $63 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $62 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $52 −$11 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $183 +$21 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $128 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? Jun 18 $122 +$12 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 18 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 18 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 18 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $201 +$19 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 18 $201 −$19 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $201 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $201 −$16 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $55 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 −$47 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $60 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $201 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $201 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $201 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $201 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 −$145 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $224 −$94 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $97 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $60 −$13 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$17 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $54 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$24 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 −$94 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $188 −$20 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $201 +$15 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $78 +$9 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $106 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $75 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $101 28m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $201 29m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $100 30m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $201 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $72 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $62 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $68 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $54 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $26 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $57 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $54 9h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $61 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $34 9h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $19 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 97¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 91¢ $46 22h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $50 23h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $56 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 85¢ $170 26h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $201 28h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $201 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 72¢ $39 30h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $50 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 85¢ $43 34h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $63 34h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $128 35h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 48¢ $48 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,968.57 · official $1,968.49 (match) · 3500 history records