Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb6a…fe2d world 48 markets active 1d ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$3
other 19% −$6
politics 15% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 5% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.9% -10.4% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 17 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 17 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 0% -9.0%
all 47 -2.9% -12.2% 23% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage266d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 30¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $66 −$4 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $134 +$3 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $23 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $42 +$4 +10%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $47 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 07 $23 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $22 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 27 $28 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 26 $2 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Sep 24 $26 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $13 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $12 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $20 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $53 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $53 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $53 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $52 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $37 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records