Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb64…5692 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$2
other 28% −$2
sports 9% $0
politics 6% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 +0.2% -9.4% 24% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 21 +0.2% -9.4% 24% 0% -9.2%
all 50 -2.0% -11.3% 26% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage273d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $39 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $24 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $58 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 10 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 09 $12 $0 -1%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Oct 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 09 $9 $0 +2%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 05 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $1 $0 -5%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $14 $0 +3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $2 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 24 $4 −$2 -36%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $38 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $38 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $2 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $36 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $39 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $27 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $35 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $38 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $38 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $35 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $32 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $4 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $22 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $25 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records