Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb5f…6872 finance 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$203 (+5%) realized +$205 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%47W / 69L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$97
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 69% +$419
other 17% −$159
sports 9% −$2
crypto 6% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -54.4% -58.7% 18% 18% -55.5%
≤90d 30 -38.0% -43.9% 30% 30% -30.1%
all 116 -9.7% -18.3% 41% 40% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 40% -4.5%
10% -26.2% 40% -13.6%
15% -33.3% 38% -22.0%
20% -39.8% 34% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$22 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses47 / 69
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage193d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 68¢ 68¢ $340 $337 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $51 −$51 -99%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$70 +235%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $30 −$30 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $30 −$30 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26? May 23 $30 −$30 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $30 −$30 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $60 +$40 +67%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $60 +$40 +67%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? May 15 $60 +$40 +67%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $30 −$30 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8? May 11 $32 −$26 -83%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11? May 10 $12 −$12 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $60 +$40 +67%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $85 +$82 +97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $63 −$63 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 6? Apr 17 $18 +$41 +233%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? Apr 01 $75 +$25 +33%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 1? Apr 01 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 31? Mar 31 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $30 +$20 +67%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 26? Mar 26 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 25 $31 −$27 -88%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 24? Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 20? Mar 20 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 18? Mar 18 $30 +$68 +227%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 17 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 16? Mar 16 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 13? Mar 14 $30 +$70 +233%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 12? Mar 12 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10? Mar 11 $60 +$40 +67%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 11? Mar 11 $30 +$12 +40%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9? Mar 10 $30 +$70 +233%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 5? Mar 05 $25 −$25 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4? Mar 04 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 3? Mar 03 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 03 $36 +$64 +181%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 27? Feb 27 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26? Feb 27 $60 +$40 +67%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 25? Feb 25 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 24? Feb 25 $45 +$105 +233%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 23? Feb 23 $15 −$15 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 20? Feb 20 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 19? Feb 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $343 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 52¢ $13 7d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 37¢ $6 7d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 37¢ $18 7d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 37¢ $3 7d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 30¢ $7 8d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 30¢ $2 8d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 30¢ $3 8d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 30¢ $2 8d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 30¢ $2 8d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 30¢ $30 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 30¢ $30 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 42¢ $2 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 42¢ $19 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 29¢ $30 11d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 30¢ $30 12d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? BUY Down 30¢ $30 19d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? BUY Down 30¢ $18 21d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? BUY Down 30¢ $12 21d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? BUY Down 30¢ $15 22d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? BUY Down 30¢ $15 22d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26? BUY Down 30¢ $30 27d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? BUY Down 30¢ $21 29d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? BUY Down 30¢ $9 29d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? BUY Down 30¢ $30 29d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? BUY Up 30¢ $30 30d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Down 30¢ $15 32d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Down 30¢ $15 32d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 30¢ $30 33d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14? BUY Down 30¢ $30 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $337.49 · official $337.49 (match) · 396 history records