Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcb5f…0689 sports 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$129 (-0%) realized −$123 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%88W / 54L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$486est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$822
7 days+$709
14 days+$777
30 days+$764
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$116
world 1% −$27
other 0% −$6
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -27.8% -34.6% 50% 38% +16.4%
≤30d 25 +1.1% -8.5% 52% 40% +13.3%
≤90d 98 +4.6% -5.3% 56% 46% -19.2%
all 142 +15.8% +4.8% 62% 51% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 51% -9.1%
10% -5.2% 40% -17.8%
15% -14.4% 30% -25.7%
20% -22.8% 18% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$153 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$1,474
Realized−$123
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses88 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$486
Open positions7
Markets (closed)142 / 149
History coverage114d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Wampirki 46¢ 46¢ $642 $644 +$3 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Vexa 43¢ 43¢ $624 $631 +$7 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki - Map 1 Winner Wampirki 47¢ 52¢ $73 $80 +$8 (+11%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 49¢ 48¢ $63 $62 −$1 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa - Map 1 Winner Vexa 42¢ 46¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+10%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ $26 $9 −$17 (-65%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 25 $1,593 +$568 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $273 +$102 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $406 +$160 +39%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs Dark Moon (BO3) - LG UltraGear Jun 25 $21 −$8 -37%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou Jun 24 $18 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $74 +$2 +2%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $55 +$45 +83%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 +$11 +124%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $121 +$9 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $60 −$9 -16%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $14 +$11 +83%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $14 +$11 +75%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $13 +$22 +165%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sinners (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 13 $5 +$5 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs MIBR (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 13 $64 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 09 $37 −$36 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 09 $72 +$28 +40%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs NEW VISION (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Eu May 17 $19 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S May 17 $4 +$6 +127%
Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 May 17 $225 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Challe May 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - Odyssey Cup May 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag May 07 $21 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs against All authority (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch May 03 $66 −$34 -51%
Counter-Strike: NeverPlay vs VP.Future (BO3) - Exort Series Contenders May 02 $82 −$81 -99%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs Red Feet (BO3) - Gamers Club Lig Apr 27 $14 −$14 -98%
Map Handicap: GLS (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5) Apr 27 $554 −$129 -23%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs RED Canids - Map 1 Winner Apr 27 $12 +$1 +11%
Map Handicap: BOSS (-1.5) vs Zomblers (+1.5) Apr 27 $39 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 27 $16 +$44 +278%
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne - Map 2 Winner Apr 27 $60 +$34 +56%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Game Hunters - Map 2 Winner Apr 27 $30 +$70 +233%
Counter-Strike: BOSS vs Zomblers (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North A Apr 27 $118 +$21 +18%
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne - Map 1 Winner Apr 27 $180 +$20 +11%
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 27 $494 +$144 +29%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - ESL Challenger Le Apr 27 $565 +$118 +21%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner Apr 26 $65 −$29 -44%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Keyd (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South Am Apr 26 $208 −$22 -11%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Game Hunters (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 26 $4,200 −$3,778 -90%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Game Hunters - Map 1 Winner Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Project 91 (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Eu Apr 24 $15 −$7 -49%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Aurora Young Blood - Map 2 Winner Apr 24 $68 −$8 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 47¢ $72 12m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 46¢ $4 22m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 46¢ $42 39m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 46¢ $62 39m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 46¢ $18 45m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 46¢ $58 52m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki - Map 1 Winner BUY Wampirki 47¢ $74 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 47¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 46¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 46¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 46¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 46¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 46¢ $46 2h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 47¢ $63 2h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 46¢ $37 3h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 46¢ $23 3h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 47¢ $24 4h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa - Map 1 Winner BUY Vexa 37¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 38¢ $12 21h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 40¢ $12 21h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 40¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa - Map 1 Winner BUY Vexa 38¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 40¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 40¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 40¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 40¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 40¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 40¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 40¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 40¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,473.89 · official $1,466.55 (match) · 1689 history records