Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb5d…33ef other 254 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$39
sports 20% −$22
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$9
economics 6% −$9
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage140d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $394 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $376 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $432 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $523 −$2 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $270 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $242 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $497 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $316 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $631 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $460 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $367 +$1 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $159 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $390 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $604 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $168 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $129 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $459 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $553 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $661 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $477 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $221 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 31 $82 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $213 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $57 3m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $57 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 6h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 9h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 9h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 11h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 16h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 18h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 18h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 20h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 24h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 25h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 31h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 32h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 34h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 36h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 37h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 39h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 46h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1483 history records