Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcb59…0a22
world · 209 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
+$50,410 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$41,214 · open −$2,698
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$76,923
Realized+$41,214
Unrealized−$2,698
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses137 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions23
Markets (closed)187 / 209
Avg bet$5,145
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 23 History 187 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,904
7 days−$11,071
14 days+$5,841
30 days−$23,114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $17,563 $19,632 +$2,068 (+12%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 90¢ 97¢ $13,658 $14,833 +$1,174 (+9%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 85¢ 99¢ $10,512 $12,169 +$1,657 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 26¢ $9,586 $6,890 −$2,696 (-28%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 82¢ 81¢ $3,761 $3,724 −$38 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,278 $3,293 +$15 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $3,875 $2,795 −$1,080 (-28%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $2,039 $2,430 +$391 (+19%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 63¢ 62¢ $2,273 $2,226 −$47 (-2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 58¢ 75¢ $1,483 $1,931 +$449 (+30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1,560 $1,500 −$60 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 65¢ 18¢ $4,856 $1,384 −$3,472 (-71%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 36¢ 24¢ $1,800 $1,175 −$625 (-35%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 55¢ 36¢ $1,756 $1,168 −$588 (-33%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 31¢ 39¢ $844 $1,071 +$228 (+27%)
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $337 $331 −$6 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $174 $126 −$48 (-28%)
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 54¢ 65¢ $43 $52 +$9 (+20%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 17¢ 10¢ $85 $50 −$35 (-41%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+21%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? Yes 49¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump announce Derek Harvey as the next Director of National Inte Jun 11 $43 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce John Eisenberg as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $277 +$3 +1%
Will Trump announce John Ratcliffe as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $374 +$17 +4%
Will Trump announce Mike Flynn as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $124 +$3 +2%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $2,480 +$125 +5%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $1,870 −$1,535 -82%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $1,038 +$395 +38%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $5,286 −$4,915 -93%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $742 −$739 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $1,214 +$112 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,935 −$4,935 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 06 $1,600 +$394 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $6,673 −$5,648 -85%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $75,188 +$24,306 +32%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $744 +$22 +3%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 02 $5,900 −$67 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $240 +$64 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $324 −$324 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? Jun 01 $96 −$96 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $6,774 −$6,774 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $24,225 −$17,361 -72%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $5,767 −$298 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $19,777 +$984 +5%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $1,653 +$207 +12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $29,060 +$2,490 +9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $33,455 +$19,527 +58%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $1,309 +$78 +6%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $688 +$100 +14%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $82 +$22 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 28 $32,310 −$17,826 -55%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $643 +$57 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $27 −$19 -70%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $27,297 −$2,558 -9%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 27 $1,403 −$192 -14%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 26 $9,950 +$368 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $896 +$238 +27%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 26 $181 +$4 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 26 $476 +$511 +107%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $1,556 −$1,521 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $1,155 −$1,125 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $739 −$728 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $8,562 −$8,330 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $815 +$240 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $412 −$412 -100%
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in May? May 25 $147 +$24 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 25 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $5,457 +$110 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% −$16,537
politics 23% +$7,746
other 16% −$2,449
crypto 8% +$24,709
sports 4% +$26,128
tech 1% −$982
economics 0% +$41
finance 0% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $596 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $743 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $66 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $835 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $592 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $292 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 20¢ $60 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $219 7h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $968 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $374 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $195 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $991 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $930 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $390 11h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $312 12h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $2 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $766 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $289 12h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $3,586 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 13h
Will Trump announce Derek Harvey as the next Director of National Inte BUY No 99¢ $43 13h
Will Trump announce John Eisenberg as the next Director of National In BUY No 99¢ $277 13h
Will Trump announce Mike Flynn as the next Director of National Intell BUY No 98¢ $124 13h
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel BUY No 95¢ $2,480 13h
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In BUY No 96¢ $374 13h
Will Trump announce John Ratcliffe as the next Director of National In BUY No 98¢ $35 13h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $0 14h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $80 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -20.4% -28.0% 71% 14% -59.3%
≤30d 112 -9.0% -17.6% 71% 32% -13.8%
≤90d 187 +4.5% -5.4% 73% 34% -5.4%
all 187 +4.5% -5.4% 73% 34% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 34% -5.4%
10% -14.5% 19% -14.5%
15% ← realistic here -22.8% 14% -22.7%
20% -30.3% 10% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76,923.46 · official $76,923.91 (match) · 3500 history records