Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb58…55ce crypto 318 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (273 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%187W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day272.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$5
sports 20% −$25
other 6% +$10
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (273 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 306 -2.9% -12.1% 61% 38% -11.3%
≤30d 306 -2.9% -12.1% 61% 38% -11.3%
≤90d 306 -2.9% -12.1% 61% 38% -11.3%
all 306 -2.9% -12.1% 61% 38% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover272.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 38% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 29% -19.8%
15% -28.2% 20% -27.5%
20% -35.3% 12% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses187 / 119
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)306 / 318
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day272.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 28? No 88¢ 91¢ $77 $80 +$3 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 19¢ 31¢ $20 $32 +$13 (+64%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 39¢ 36¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 43¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 28? No 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner Subtop De France 44¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $14 +$6 +44%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame Jun 28 $2 $0 -12%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $6 −$5 -80%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $64 +$40 +62%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $3 $0 -6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $6 +$2 +26%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $11 $0 +4%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$3 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +37%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 27 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 72¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY Subtop De France 44¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 65¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 28? BUY No 66¢ $2 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 87¢ $22 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 80¢ $4 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.35 · official $167.76 (match) · 837 history records