Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CB 0xcb57…ea51 other 29 markets active 3h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$497 (+14%) realized +$657 · open −$160
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$1,107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$421
7 days+$424
14 days+$436
30 days+$436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$54
sports 37% +$326
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +49.5% +35.2% 69% 69% +17.5%
≤30d 18 +14.8% +3.8% 56% 56% +7.8%
≤90d 18 +14.8% +3.8% 56% 56% +7.8%
all 18 +14.8% +3.8% 56% 56% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 56% +7.8%
10% -6.1% 56% -2.5%
15% -15.2% 44% -11.9%
20% -23.5% 33% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$52 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,107
Realized+$657
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions11
Markets (closed)18 / 29
History coverage10d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $167 $144 −$23 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $100 −$100 (-50%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $82 −$65 -79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 +$36 +35%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 +$122 +596%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $505 +$272 +54%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $103 +$45 +44%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$57 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $704 +$158 +22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $82 −$82 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $177 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 18h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $139 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $21 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 42h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $778 45h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $505 46h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 46h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $148 46h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 4d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $51 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $171 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,107.32 · official $1,107.32 (match) · 54 history records