Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:02:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CB 0xcb57…c85e sports 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$528 (+23%) realized +$525 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%30W / 20L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$568
14 days+$701
30 days+$701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$410
other 14% +$329
crypto 12% +$16
world 2% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +33.8% +21.1% 60% 60% +23.0%
≤30d 50 +31.4% +18.9% 60% 60% +20.5%
≤90d 50 +31.4% +18.9% 60% 60% +20.5%
all 50 +31.4% +18.9% 60% 60% +20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.9% 60% +20.5%
10% +7.5% 60% +8.9%
15% -2.9% 60% -1.6%
20% -12.4% 56% -11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$35 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$525
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses30 / 20
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 57
History coverage12d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+36%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$58 +114%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $76 +$40 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $24 +$46 +191%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $105 +$65 +62%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $76 +$94 +124%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) AND Will Netherlands Jun 20 $26 +$16 +62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 +$98 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $26 +$99 +388%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $26 +$93 +365%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $6 +$6 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$16 +298%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $43 +$60 +140%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $40 +$39 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $91 +$159 +175%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $69 +$62 +90%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $34 +$35 +105%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$98 +97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $149 +$100 +67%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $51 +$49 +97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $100 −$50 -50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $109 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 62¢ $51 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $25 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 15h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 65¢ $76 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 63¢ $51 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $24 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $105 44h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $76 44h
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) AND Will Netherlands SELL 18¢ $42 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $51 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread BUY 24¢ $26 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) AND Neth BUY 34¢ $25 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) AND Will Netherlands BUY 11¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $125 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.13 · official $73.13 · 125 history records