trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? | Jun 13 | $20 | −$19 | -93% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $21 | −$20 | -94% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 31 | $21 | +$13 | +64% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 28 | $21 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 17 | $20 | +$1 | +4% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? | SELL Yes | 0¢ | $1 | 1h |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | BUY Yes | 34¢ | $21 | 46h |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? | BUY Yes | 6¢ | $20 | 9d |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY Yes | 58¢ | $21 | 14d |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | SELL Yes | 99¢ | $20 | 15d |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY Yes | 93¢ | $21 | 26d |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL Yes | 58¢ | $21 | 26d |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY Yes | 52¢ | $20 | 45d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -96.7% | -97.0% | 0% | 0% | -97.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -25.5% | -32.6% | 40% | 20% | -31.5% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -25.5% | -32.6% | 40% | 20% | -31.5% |
| all | 5 | -25.5% | -32.6% | 40% | 20% | -31.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -32.6% | 20% | -31.5% |
| 10% | -39.1% | 20% | -38.1% |
| 15% | -45.0% | 20% | -44.1% |
| 20% | -50.4% | 20% | -49.6% |