Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CB 0xcb56…16d4 world 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$272 (+14%) realized +$310 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days+$217
14 days+$217
30 days+$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$583
politics 24% −$335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +127.6% +106.0% 100% 100% +106.0%
≤30d 5 +47.0% +33.0% 80% 80% +52.3%
≤90d 13 +10.9% +0.4% 62% 62% +6.2%
all 13 +10.9% +0.4% 62% 62% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 62% +6.2%
10% -9.2% 54% -4.0%
15% -18.0% 54% -13.2%
20% -26.0% 54% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$104 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized+$310
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage70d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 48¢ 40¢ $150 $127 −$23 (-16%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 47¢ 42¢ $140 $125 −$15 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $170 +$217 +128%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $186 +$100 +54%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $50 −$9 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $150 +$77 +51%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $324 −$320 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $200 +$118 +59%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $80 +$51 +64%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 24 $73 −$73 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? Apr 08 $100 +$117 +117%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $189 +$126 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $150 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $301 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $226 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $156 21d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 24d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $41 24d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 25d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $60 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $86 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 29d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 30d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 46¢ $41 30d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 30d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 34d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 48¢ $102 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 44d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 58d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $50 61d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $20 61d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $20 61d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $50 61d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $100 61d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 70¢ $120 61d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 61¢ $80 61d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $200 61d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $211 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.06 · official $252.06 (match) · 81 history records