Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb53…fde7 weather 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (166 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$183 (-7%) realized −$183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day166.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (166 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -9.4% -18.0% 2% 0% -18.1%
≤30d 100 -9.4% -18.0% 2% 0% -18.1%
≤90d 100 -9.4% -18.0% 2% 0% -18.1%
all 100 -9.4% -18.0% 2% 0% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover166.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 0% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 0% -25.9%
15% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
20% -39.6% 0% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 98
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage3d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day166.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? Jun 24 $46 −$4 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $21 −$2 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? Jun 24 $21 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $53 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 25? Jun 24 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $52 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $32 −$3 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 26? Jun 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? Jun 24 $12 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 25? Jun 24 $24 −$7 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? Jun 24 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? Jun 24 $18 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? Jun 24 $25 −$4 -18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $28 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 24 $8 −$3 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25? Jun 24 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? Jun 24 $12 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 25? Jun 24 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $18 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 25? Jun 23 $13 −$3 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 25? Jun 23 $67 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? Jun 23 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $37 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 23 $29 −$6 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23? Jun 23 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 25? Jun 23 $25 −$4 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 23? Jun 23 $39 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 23 $47 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 25? Jun 23 $16 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $35 −$11 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 25? Jun 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $26 −$6 -22%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 25? Jun 23 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 23 $11 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 24? Jun 23 $16 −$3 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $73 −$33 -46%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 24? Jun 23 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 23 $5 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? SELL No 50¢ $20 3m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 57¢ $23 3m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 25? SELL No 43¢ $7 11m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 43¢ $8 11m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? SELL No 27¢ $5 16m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? SELL No 29¢ $6 16m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 30¢ $12 19m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 40¢ $13 26m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 40¢ $7 26m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 44¢ $22 26m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 71¢ $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 25? SELL No 65¢ $4 40m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 25? BUY No 65¢ $4 41m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 43m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? SELL No 60¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? SELL No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? SELL No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? SELL No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? SELL No 43¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 48¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.18 · official $2.87 (match) · 470 history records