Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

CB 0xcb52…a6f2 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$20 (+6%) realized +$20 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate71%17W / 7L

Drawdown74%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit4%portable

Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$3

7 days+$34

14 days+$22

30 days+$22

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+8.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+17.2%	+6.1%	79%	71%	+2.9%
≤30d	24	+19.5%	+8.2%	71%	62%	-2.9%
≤90d	24	+19.5%	+8.2%	71%	62%	-2.9%
all	24	+19.5%	+8.2%	71%	62%	-2.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.2%	62%	-2.9%
10%	-2.2%	54%	-12.2%
15%	-11.6%	50%	-20.7%
20%	-20.3%	42%	-28.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +31% → late +8% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.25 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$29

Realized+$20

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses17 / 7

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage14d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown74%

Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	91¢	92¢	$29	$29	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$26	+$4	+16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$17	+$9	+55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$17	+$9	+52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$31	+$4	+12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$13	+$13	+101%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	+$6	+57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	+$3	+29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$20	−$19	-99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$37	+$25	+67%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$3	$0	+10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$20	+$10	+49%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$6	+$5	+93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$8	−$8	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 14	$8	−$8	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$8	−$8	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 14	$6	+$6	+101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	$0	+6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5	+$3	+60%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$2	+$4	+262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$4	+$7	+158%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 11	$9	−$9	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$4	+$1	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$29	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$30	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	86¢	$26	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$26	44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$17	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$17	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$26	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$6	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$13	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$13	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$10	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$3	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$30	5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$7	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$11	6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	65¢	$8	7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	90¢	$8	8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	25¢	$8	8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6	8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6	9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$6	10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$5	10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$9	10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	62¢	$5	10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	49¢	$6	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.02 · official $29.02 (match) · 46 history records