Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:38:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb51…d2f5 sports 263 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$43,412 (+11%) realized +$44,372 · open −$960
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%157W / 99L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$1,498per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$1,803est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$9,942now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53,195
7 days−$50,262
14 days−$47,712
30 days−$43,299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$38,657
other 21% +$315
politics 4% −$4,126
world 3% +$556
culture 0% −$529
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -70.2% -73.0% 22% 15% -66.2%
≤30d 47 -48.6% -53.5% 32% 26% -48.8%
≤90d 107 +1.5% -8.2% 58% 50% -11.2%
all 256 +12.3% +1.6% 61% 55% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.6% 55% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -8.1% 50% -10.6%
15% -17.0% 44% -19.2%
20% -25.1% 37% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$2,010) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$926 vs −$1,119 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$9,942
Realized+$44,372
Unrealized−$960
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses157 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$1,803
Open positions15
Markets (closed)256 / 263
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,498
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 94¢ $4,450 $4,698 +$248 (+6%)
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Learner Tien 88¢ 88¢ $1,855 $1,845 −$11 (-1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 39¢ $253 $1,478 +$1,225 (+484%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 64¢ $700 $645 −$55 (-8%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 66¢ $485 $504 +$19 (+4%)
Corentin Moutet vs. Marcos Giron: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Over 3.5 67¢ 66¢ $436 $432 −$3 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $260 $198 −$62 (-24%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $130 $125 −$5 (-4%)
Will Monica Rodriguez win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $333 $2 −$331 (-99%)
Will Austin Beutner win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $333 $2 −$331 (-99%)
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $333 $2 −$331 (-99%)
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $333 $2 −$331 (-99%)
Will Lindsey Horvath win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $333 $2 −$331 (-99%)
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $333 $2 −$331 (-99%)
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $333 $2 −$331 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challen Jun 29 $440 −$440 -100%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists Jun 29 $763 −$763 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 29 $791 −$791 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Jun 29 $1,342 −$1,342 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $1,642 −$1,642 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 29 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 29 $1,282 −$1,282 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 29 $2,432 −$2,432 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group St Jun 29 $1,520 −$1,520 -100%
Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Jun 29 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 29 $1,855 −$1,855 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group Jun 29 $3,256 −$3,256 -100%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 29 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 29 $4,560 −$4,560 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) Jun 29 $5,255 −$5,255 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 29 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 29 $1,640 −$1,640 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 29 $680 −$680 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 29 $1,681 −$1,681 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch S Jun 29 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 29 $1,701 −$1,701 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 29 $1,761 −$1,761 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 29 $801 −$801 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playof Jun 29 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 29 $2,014 −$2,014 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 28 $1,370 +$55 +4%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 27 $1,446 +$431 +30%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 27 $1,718 +$191 +11%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5,554 +$2,541 +46%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 27 $9,100 +$900 +10%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $3,303 +$1,697 +51%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 25 $78 +$27 +34%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) Jun 23 $223 +$217 +97%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 22 $1,033 +$93 +9%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $2,450 +$2,550 +104%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,950 +$2,050 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,540 +$1,960 +127%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2,550 +$2,450 +96%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2,465 +$2,535 +103%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $6,491 −$6,461 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $2,120 +$1,880 +89%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $2,586 +$414 +16%
Toronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 May 22 $2,398 +$2,597 +108%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $3,400 +$1,600 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 88¢ $1,862 1h
Corentin Moutet vs. Marcos Giron: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 67¢ $440 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 96¢ $1,370 31h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $32 34h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $9 34h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 77¢ $670 34h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $9 34h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $18 34h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $90 34h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $180 34h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $2 34h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 77¢ $16 34h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 77¢ $17 34h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 77¢ $8 34h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 77¢ $650 34h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $148 34h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $7 34h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $9 34h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $450 34h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $208 34h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $9 34h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $90 34h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $42 34h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $18 34h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $45 34h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $27 34h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $9 34h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $212 35h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $45 35h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $90 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,941.84 · official $9,941.84 (match) · 2697 history records