Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb4a…7692 politics 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-4%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$25
other 13% $0
politics 11% −$7
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -5.8% -14.8% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤90d 6 -7.7% -16.5% 0% 0% -16.6%
all 17 -9.6% -18.2% 18% 18% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 18% -13.9%
10% -26.1% 12% -22.1%
15% -33.2% 12% -29.6%
20% -39.8% 12% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$10 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage106d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $13 −$1 -6%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $17 −$1 -6%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $3 $0 -8%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $7 $0 -7%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $11 −$1 -9%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $5 $0 -10%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 19 $64 +$36 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 19 $90 −$15 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 19 $83 +$58 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 19 $86 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 19 $159 −$12 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $3 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 20d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 20d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 20d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 20d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 73d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 73d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 73d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.70 · official $99.70 (match) · 230 history records