Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcb48…be6d tech 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy tech specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$37 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate42%44W / 60L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$753now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$48
14 days−$43
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$2
tech 43% −$49
weather 2% −$86
world 1% −$5
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -27.1% -34.1% 25% 8% -11.3%
≤30d 45 -10.5% -19.0% 51% 29% -7.9%
≤90d 104 -14.3% -22.4% 42% 18% -10.6%
all 104 -14.3% -22.4% 42% 18% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 18% -10.6%
10% -29.8% 10% -19.1%
15% -36.6% 7% -26.9%
20% -42.8% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$753
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses44 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)104 / 110
History coverage65d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 78¢ 87¢ $473 $527 +$54 (+11%)
Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? No 58¢ 24¢ $124 $51 −$73 (-59%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? No 97¢ 95¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Jun 27 $91 $0 -0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 26 $86 −$13 -15%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 25 $221 −$4 -2%
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June Jun 24 $555 +$60 +11%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 24 $820 −$24 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $148 +$2 +2%
Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Contro Jun 24 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control Jun 24 $20 −$19 -99%
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -94%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 24 $453 −$3 -1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Contro Jun 22 $109 −$43 -39%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $14 +$3 +22%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 15 $1,562 +$8 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $628 −$5 -1%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $319 +$22 +7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 12 $27 −$27 -99%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $93 −$34 -36%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +29%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1,033 +$121 +12%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $284 −$3 -1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $300 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 10 $63 +$2 +4%
Will Apple announce a new product line during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $73 −$7 -9%
Will Apple announce an Apple Smart Home Display during the WWDC 2026 k Jun 09 $251 +$25 +10%
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn Jun 09 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Apple announce an AI-charged Siri during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 09 $66 −$50 -75%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $140 −$12 -8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $199 −$8 -4%
Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -80%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d Jun 06 $145 +$10 +7%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $45 +$3 +7%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440? Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 05 $356 +$87 +24%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 05 $22 +$9 +43%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 05 $13 +$5 +40%
Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during t Jun 05 $2 −$2 -68%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 04 $29 +$4 +12%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d Jun 04 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 02 $19 +$3 +18%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 30 $89 +$24 +26%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con May 30 $79 +$74 +93%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? May 29 $35 −$25 -73%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 25 $16 −$16 -99%
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301? May 24 $10 −$1 -7%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026? May 24 $35 +$2 +7%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? May 24 $32 +$7 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY No 93¢ $56 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $91 25h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $52 26h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $39 36h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL Yes 74¢ $73 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL No 10¢ $10 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $10 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 2d
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $223 3d
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $77 3d
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $77 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $14 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $127 3d
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June SELL Yes 98¢ $466 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $141 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 60¢ $68 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 59¢ $29 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 68¢ $75 3d
Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Contro SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June BUY Yes 96¢ $5 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 95¢ $276 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $276 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $752.83 · official $752.83 (match) · 723 history records