Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb48…73cc sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$8 (-3%) realized +$2 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$35
other 23% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +19.4% +8.0% 50% 50% -13.9%
≤30d 10 +19.4% +8.0% 50% 50% -13.9%
≤90d 10 +19.4% +8.0% 50% 50% -13.9%
all 10 +19.4% +8.0% 50% 50% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 50% -13.9%
10% -2.3% 50% -22.2%
15% -11.8% 50% -29.7%
20% -20.4% 50% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Zeynep Sonmez 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Ilya Ivashka Jun 18 $12 +$19 +156%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$8 +194%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $10 −$6 -60%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 −$6 -60%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $70 −$69 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$25 +55%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $27 +$18 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $11 +$16 +146%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 34¢ $10 30m
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 19¢ $10 33m
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 56¢ $30 1h
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Ilya Ivashka SELL Pablo Martinez Gomez 99¢ $31 1h
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Ilya Ivashka BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 38¢ $12 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 99¢ $12 15h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $4 17h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 25¢ $4 17h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 61¢ $10 18h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 16¢ $4 19h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) SELL Portugal 10¢ $4 19h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 24¢ $10 20h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 55¢ $70 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $45 36h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $27 39h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $11 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 20 history records