Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb43…8030 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$16 (-10%) realized −$17 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$14
other 49% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -27.7% -34.5% 53% 53% -19.6%
≤30d 17 -27.7% -34.5% 53% 53% -19.6%
≤90d 17 -27.7% -34.5% 53% 53% -19.6%
all 17 -27.7% -34.5% 53% 53% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 53% -19.6%
10% -40.8% 35% -27.3%
15% -46.5% 24% -34.3%
20% -51.8% 12% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Yes 16¢ 46¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+184%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 36¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$10 -65%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $19 +$5 +27%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$18 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +15%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $11 +$5 +47%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $16 +$5 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $13 +$3 +22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 20¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 18h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 78¢ $15 18h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $25 19h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $19 21h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $15 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $13 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 27h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 98¢ $16 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 34h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 34h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 45h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $11 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $16 47h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 83¢ $16 47h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $13 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.27 · official $4.27 (match) · 31 history records