Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb3f…e033 other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$5
other 30% +$3
politics 25% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 8 -13.5% -21.7% 25% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 9 -13.0% -21.2% 22% 0% -11.4%
all 62 -2.2% -11.5% 31% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage278d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 54¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $44 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $44 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $44 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $48 −$3 -6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $7 +$4 +64%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 05 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $8 −$1 -10%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 25 $67 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $26 $0 -1%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 19 $3 +$1 +18%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 28 $4 $0 +1%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $7 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 24 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $3 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $40 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $44 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $49 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $48 12h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $35 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $21 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $44 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $12 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $32 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $43 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $7 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $37 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $8 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $4 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $38 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $49 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $4 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $41 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.77 · official $29.30 (match) · 250 history records