Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcb3e…d978 other 1082 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1077W / 4L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$27
sports 42% +$1
world 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 312 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 945 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 1% -9.1%
all 1081 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 1% -9.1%
10% -16.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -24.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -31.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.98 per $1 lost it wins $3.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1077 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1081 / 1082
History coverage114d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1081 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Tony H.: Man of the People" be the top global Netflix show this week? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Taha Abdi Ali: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Firas Chaouat: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tomáš Hertl lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ellyes Skhiri: 3+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Hazem Mastouri: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Gustaf Nilsson: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan Elloumi: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Emmanuel Agbadou: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Caleb Durbin: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Simon Adingra: 3+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Tijjani Reijnders: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Jonathan Tah: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Junya Itō: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Keisuke Gotō: 3+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Nico Schlotterbeck: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Guus Til be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Gervane Kastaneer: 4+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
David Raum: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Pascal Groß: 2+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-12.5) vs ex-RUBY (+12.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-9.5) vs Infinite (+9.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: FK Haugesund 1 - 3 Ranheim? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Oliveira vs. Hernandez: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs Leo Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Emily Ratajkowski attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Selena Gomez attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Abdülkerim Bardakcı: 2+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Abdülkerim Bardakcı: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Ben Gannon-Doak: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
John McGinn: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Second half draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Lenny Joseph: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bryce Harper: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Issa Diop: 2+ assists Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Gabriel Martinelli: 2+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Remo Freuler: 3+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Denis Zakaria: 4+ goals + assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Taha Abdi Ali: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Firas Chaouat: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Ellyes Skhiri: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Hazem Mastouri: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Gustaf Nilsson: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Rayan Elloumi: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will Tomáš Hertl lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Emmanuel Agbadou: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Caleb Durbin: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5h
Simon Adingra: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Tijjani Reijnders: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Jonathan Tah: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Junya Itō: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Keisuke Gotō: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Nico Schlotterbeck: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Gervane Kastaneer: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will Guus Til be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $5 11h
Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
David Raum: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Pascal Groß: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-12.5) vs ex-RUBY (+12.5) BUY ex-RUBY 100¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: FK Haugesund 1 - 3 Ranheim? BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-9.5) vs Infinite (+9.5) BUY Infinite 100¢ $5 15h
Oliveira vs. Hernandez: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 16h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs Leo Team (+3.5) BUY SPARTA 100¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 2450 history records