Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcb3d…cf1e crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$60 (+10%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 58% -0.7%
≤30d 12 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 58% -0.7%
≤90d 12 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 58% -0.7%
all 12 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 58% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 58% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 17% -10.2%
15% -24.4% 17% -18.9%
20% -31.8% 17% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET Jun 27 $71 −$26 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET Jun 26 $168 +$23 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $122 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $48 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $24 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $145 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $47 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $66 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records