Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb3d…bd14 other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 647d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,044 (+11%) realized +$1,041 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%42W / 46L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$751
7 days+$751
14 days+$751
30 days+$1,797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$479
other 47% +$710
politics 1% −$98
crypto 1% −$51
economics 0% −$15
tech 0% −$11
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +59.8% +44.6% 100% 100% +42.7%
≤30d 4 +52.0% +37.5% 100% 100% +23.2%
≤90d 5 +21.6% +10.0% 80% 80% +23.0%
all 88 +1.8% -7.9% 48% 48% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 48% +0.1%
10% -16.7% 44% -9.4%
15% -24.8% 33% -18.2%
20% -32.2% 27% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$42 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

647d coverage
Net worth$436
Realized+$1,041
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses42 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage647d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $433 $436 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $621 +$311 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $184 +$119 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $497 +$321 +65%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3,660 +$1,046 +29%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Celtics vs. Timberwolves Nov 30 $529 −$365 -69%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $5 +$8 +170%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $505 +$126 +25%
Bears vs. Eagles Nov 28 $500 −$343 -68%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 27 $100 +$75 +75%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $100 +$27 +27%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? Nov 27 $900 +$552 +61%
Will Trump disparage Zohran Mamdani on Friday? Nov 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will NVIDIA say "Taiwan" during earnings call? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA say "Talent" during earnings call? Nov 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Warriors vs. Magic Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Peru win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2025-11-17? Nov 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Qatar win on 2025-11-17? Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Nets vs. Wizards Nov 17 $1 +$1 +127%
Will France win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Will England win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $5 +$2 +35%
Lions vs. Eagles Nov 17 $10 +$7 +72%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Nov 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Bucks Nov 16 $3 +$3 +89%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $31 +$11 +35%
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Pistons Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Knicks Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Suns Nov 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Lakers vs. Thunder Nov 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Cavaliers vs. Heat Nov 13 $5 +$9 +186%
Bucks vs. Hornets Nov 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 11 $64 +$62 +96%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $2 +$2 +92%
Falcons vs. Colts Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-11-06? Nov 07 $5 +$1 +24%
Will BSC Young Boys win on 2025-11-06? Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-11-06? Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Pacers Nov 06 $3 +$7 +233%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Nov 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Parma win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Udinese win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $437 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $621 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $184 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $497 30h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,228 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 50¢ $1,478 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,660 22d
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $10 59d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 131d
Celtics vs. Timberwolves SELL Celtics 17¢ $163 203d
Celtics vs. Timberwolves BUY Celtics 55¢ $529 203d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $85 203d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 203d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 203d
Will Everton win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 203d
Will Everton win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 203d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 203d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $630 203d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 80¢ $505 203d
Bears vs. Eagles SELL Eagles 2¢ $7 204d
Bears vs. Eagles SELL Eagles 47¢ $150 204d
Bears vs. Eagles BUY Eagles 75¢ $500 204d
Packers vs. Lions SELL Packers 100¢ $175 205d
Packers vs. Lions BUY Packers 57¢ $100 205d
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-27? SELL Yes 80¢ $127 205d
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-27? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 205d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $900 206d
Will Trump disparage Zohran Mamdani on Friday? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 211d
Will NVIDIA say "Taiwan" during earnings call? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 213d
Will NVIDIA say "Talent" during earnings call? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 213d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.23 · official $436.23 (match) · 148 history records