Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb3c…6cc1 crypto 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$54 (+4%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%77W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day80.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$63
sports 17% −$9
crypto 16% +$76
world 5% +$2
culture 2% −$19
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 42% -10.3%
≤30d 160 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 42% -10.3%
≤90d 160 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 42% -10.3%
all 160 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 42% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 42% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 29% -18.9%
15% -27.5% 18% -26.7%
20% -34.6% 11% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses77 / 83
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day80.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $280 −$7 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $181 −$13 -7%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $53 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 −$6 -79%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 23 $11 +$5 +49%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 −$5 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $51 −$8 -15%
Will "Choosin’ Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 22 $21 −$14 -66%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 22 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$15 -71%
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 21 $8 −$5 -59%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +38%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$12 +41%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $52 +$7 +14%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $23 +$15 +69%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $4 $0 -4%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 21 $20 −$9 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 26m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $19 29m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $19 41m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $19 47m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $24 57m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 59m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 59m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $27 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $39 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $27 2h
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? SELL Yes 80¢ $16 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 39¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.58 (match) · 562 history records