Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb3c…de27 other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,445 (-3%) realized −$2,444 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%25W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$851per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$13
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$99
politics 37% −$43
sports 15% −$2,235
world 3% −$82
culture 2% −$2
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -21.6% -29.1% 6% 1% -13.5%
all 112 -7.6% -16.4% 22% 10% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 10% -11.8%
10% -24.4% 9% -20.3%
15% -31.7% 6% -28.0%
20% -38.4% 5% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,221) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$32 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$603
Realized−$2,444
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses25 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage149d
Avg bet$851
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $603 $603 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $213 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $307 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,825 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $705 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,314 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,456 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,256 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $422 +$1 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,327 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 20 $401 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $2,039 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,862 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $1,617 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $678 +$2 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $324 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,974 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,679 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,321 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $5,914 −$5 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $140 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $179 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 05 $41 −$10 -24%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-02-22? Apr 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Jazz vs. Heat Apr 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Apr 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Kraken vs. Stars Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Apr 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 2h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $307 20h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $307 22h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $218 22h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $218 24h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $218 24h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $219 26h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $603 3d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $725 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $726 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $704 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $705 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $710 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $711 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $847 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $848 8d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 8d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $843 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $844 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $700 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $701 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $504 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $505 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,068 17d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,070 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,069 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,071 18d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,033 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $602.54 · official $602.54 (match) · 389 history records