Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb3b…fc79 crypto 703 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$271 (-2%) realized −$271 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%686W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$50
14 days+$64
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$41
finance 6% −$14
other 5% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 380 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 704 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 0% -10.2%
all 704 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$22 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses686 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)704 / 703
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 704 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on February 17? Jun 24 $0 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? Jun 22 $49 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $17 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $17 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$4 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $17 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $30 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 20h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $12 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.03 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records