Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

CB 0xcb3b…fba8 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$33 (-32%) realized −$33 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate38%5W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day5.2pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)-34.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-27.2%	-34.2%	38%	31%	-39.8%
≤30d	13	-27.2%	-34.2%	38%	31%	-39.8%
≤90d	13	-27.2%	-34.2%	38%	31%	-39.8%
all	13	-27.2%	-34.2%	38%	31%	-39.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.2%	31%	-39.8%
10%	-40.5%	31%	-45.6%
15%	-46.2%	31%	-50.8%
20%	-51.5%	31%	-55.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -63% → late +3% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.4 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$12

Realized−$33

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses5 / 8

Open positions3

Markets (closed)13 / 16

History coverage4d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day5.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	16¢	18¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	2¢	2¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	Yes	5¢	3¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-39%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$6	+56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$5	+103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$5	+99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$3	+63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	Jun 15	$25	−$19	-77%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Jun 12	$3	$0	-3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$11	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$10	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$5	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$5	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$5	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$5	1h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	BUY No	2¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$6	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$5	33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	SELL Yes	4¢	$3	33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	SELL Yes	4¢	$3	33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	BUY Yes	17¢	$4	3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	SELL No	5¢	$3	3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	BUY No	5¢	$3	4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	BUY Yes	19¢	$11	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.40 · official $25.52 · 26 history records