Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CB 0xcb3a…d3e3 weather 220 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$433 (+2%) realized +$401 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate88%187W / 26L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$104
14 days−$132
30 days+$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$571
sports 3% −$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +2.0% -7.7% 93% 5% -7.3%
≤30d 213 +0.8% -8.8% 88% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 213 +0.8% -8.8% 88% 11% -8.4%
all 213 +0.8% -8.8% 88% 11% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 11% -8.4%
10% -17.5% 6% -17.2%
15% -25.5% 5% -25.2%
20% -32.8% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$47 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized+$401
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses187 / 26
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)213 / 220
History coverage27d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? No 93¢ 100¢ $197 $213 +$16 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $198 $202 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $197 $201 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $98 $103 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $200 −$15 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 83°F or below on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $126 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $197 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $198 +$34 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $260 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $98 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 11 $99 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $156 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 10 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 10 $99 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 9? Jun 10 $197 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 10 $197 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $197 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $197 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 09 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $202 −$19 -10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 09 $98 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 8? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 8? Jun 09 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $99 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 67¢ $109 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 55¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $99 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $98 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $73 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $99 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $98 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $99 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $98 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $100 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $99 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $993.21 · official $993.21 (match) · 533 history records