trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -29.4% | -36.1% | 25% | 0% | -41.9% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -29.4% | -36.1% | 25% | 0% | -41.9% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -29.4% | -36.1% | 25% | 0% | -41.9% |
| all | 4 | -29.4% | -36.1% | 25% | 0% | -41.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -36.1% | 0% | -41.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -42.2% | 0% | -47.4% |
| 15% | -47.8% | 0% | -52.5% |
| 20% | -52.9% | 0% | -57.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $40 | $41 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 12¢ | $10 | $12 | +$2 (+25%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-17%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 54¢ | 36¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-32%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | $5 | $6 | +$2 (+31%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 29¢ | 18¢ | $10 | $6 | −$4 (-39%) |
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 19¢ | $10 | $6 | −$4 (-41%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri | Jun 16 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 15 | $30 | −$5 | -17% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | Jun 15 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 15 | $10 | $0 | +0% |