Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CB 0xcb37…f0f5 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$40 (+16%) realized −$18 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$98
politics 15% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +14.5% +3.6% 62% 38% +6.4%
≤90d 8 +14.5% +3.6% 62% 38% +6.4%
all 8 +14.5% +3.6% 62% 38% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 38% +6.4%
10% -6.3% 25% -3.8%
15% -15.4% 25% -13.1%
20% -23.7% 12% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×5.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.87 per $1 lost it wins $9.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage33d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 80¢ $0 $57 +$57 (+0%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $51 +$21 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 +$6 +61%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $41 +$4 +9%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 25 $4 $0 -7%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $28 −$4 -13%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $5 $0 -4%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $32 +$7 +21%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 99¢ $72 21d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 23d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $45 26d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 87¢ $41 26d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 44¢ $1 28d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 28d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 28d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $39 28d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $32 28d
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-24? SELL No 100¢ $33 28d
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 92¢ $30 29d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $23 29d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 29d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 45¢ $3 29d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 33d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 33d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 33d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 46¢ $4 33d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.21 · official $58.21 (match) · 23 history records