Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcb34…004f crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$342 (-12%) realized −$341 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%42W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 55% $0
crypto 35% −$47
other 11% −$295
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 42 -2.0% -11.3% 98% 0% -14.1%
≤90d 42 -2.0% -11.3% 98% 0% -14.1%
all 45 -4.1% -13.2% 93% 0% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -20.7%
10% -21.5% 0% -28.3%
15% -29.1% 0% -35.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$172 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$341
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses42 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage141d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 10? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 5? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 1? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 29? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 26? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 23? May 25 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 22? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 22? May 23 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 21? May 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21? May 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 20? May 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 19? May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 18? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Mar 12 $2 $0 +0%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 11? Mar 11 $294 −$294 -100%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jan 26 $1,541 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $11 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 8d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $12 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $31 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $12 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $14 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 27? BUY No 98¢ $10 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 20d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.42 · official $45.42 (match) · 92 history records