Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcb31…6b02
politics · 8 markets active 6d ago
0.0score
+$214,714 +824%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$53,788 · open −$24,696
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10,366
Realized−$53,788
Unrealized−$24,696
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses40 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions340
Markets (closed)160 / 8
History coverage41d
Avg bet$3,257
Trades / day79.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 340 History 160 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53,758
7 days−$53,758
14 days−$53,756
30 days−$53,788
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2,758 $2,780 +$22 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2,996 $1,486 −$1,510 (-50%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $2,427 $1,087 −$1,340 (-55%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $419 $693 +$273 (+65%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $578 $555 −$23 (-4%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2,253 $324 −$1,929 (-86%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3,795 $304 −$3,492 (-92%)
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 1¢ 100¢ $1 $167 +$166 (+13101%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 72¢ $2 $151 +$149 (+7970%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 34¢ $2 $146 +$144 (+8523%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 23¢ $2 $135 +$133 (+5679%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 88¢ $3 $135 +$132 (+4625%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 48¢ $4 $120 +$116 (+2907%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 75¢ $1 $103 +$102 (+18116%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 23¢ $2 $100 +$98 (+5793%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $18 $92 +$74 (+421%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $74 +$14 (+24%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 86¢ $1 $68 +$67 (+5030%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $198 $67 −$131 (-66%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 26¢ $4 $67 +$63 (+1527%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $34 $65 +$31 (+90%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $8 $63 +$55 (+697%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $10 $52 +$42 (+421%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 0¢ 28¢ $1 $52 +$51 (+6885%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 14¢ $3 $41 +$39 (+1524%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $1 +$203 +16084%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the San Antonio Spurs? Jun 12 $37 −$55 -150%
Will Ernest Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 12 $290 −$1,375 -474%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 +$38 +8399%
Will Lehigh win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $257 −$409 -159%
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $193 −$194 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$12 -195%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 +$101 +22490%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $2 −$222 -8871%
Will OpenSea be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $1 −$58 -5619%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $339 −$339 -100%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -6012%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $25,493 −$27,660 -108%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 2? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +633%
Will Donald Trump announce Eric Shmitt as the next United States Attor Jun 12 $8 −$14 -180%
Will Louisville win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $1 −$15 -2429%
Will Penn win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -191%
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate pa Jun 12 $488 −$606 -124%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $1 −$5 -358%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $18 −$2,544 -14535%
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $357 −$2,392 -670%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -153%
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $97 −$354 -366%
Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will the US strike another country first? Jun 12 $0 −$76 -33546%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $0 $0 -2004%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $1 −$3 -263%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $1 −$148 -16610%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 12 $5,978 −$5,978 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mason Howell shoot the lowest round at the 2026 Masters? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $109 −$367 -337%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $0 +$333 +123543%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will TreVeyon Henderson win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 12 $3 −$1,116 -35452%
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -4008%
Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $290 −$415 -143%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $3,363 +$331 +10%
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 −$41 -9033%
Will Miami (OH) win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $154 −$181 -117%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $0 +$62 +250506%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $1 +$4,322 +318898%
Will Lương Tam Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Jun 12 $255 −$256 -100%
Will UCLA win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $6 −$78 -1261%
Will Phil Mickelson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$10,704
economics 38% −$32
politics 15% −$13,977
world 2% −$14
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 4¢ $32 5d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 5d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 5d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $176 10d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $180 10d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $93 10d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $164 10d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $78 10d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $659 10d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $360 23d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $38 23d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $192 23d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 25d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 4¢ $585 34d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 8¢ $74 44d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 44d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 44d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 44d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 44d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $38 44d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $29 44d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $46 44d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $288 44d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+312.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 +369.2% +324.5% 25% 25% -98.2%
≤30d 157 +365.1% +320.8% 25% 25% -92.1%
≤90d 160 +356.4% +312.9% 25% 24% -92.1%
all 160 +356.4% +312.9% 25% 24% -92.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover79.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +312.9% 24% -92.1%
10% +273.4% 24% -92.8%
15% ← realistic here +237.3% 24% -93.5%
20% +204.3% 24% -94.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,365.98 · official $10,365.45 (match) · 3500 history records