Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcb2e…80da crypto 105 markets active 5d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-6%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%39W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$14
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$47
sports 27% +$17
other 11% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 104 -8.4% -17.2% 38% 33% -18.8%
≤90d 104 -8.4% -17.2% 38% 33% -18.8%
all 104 -8.4% -17.2% 38% 33% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 33% -18.8%
10% -25.1% 30% -26.6%
15% -32.3% 28% -33.7%
20% -39.0% 25% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses39 / 65
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 −$12 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$13 +63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$6 +109%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$21 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $9 +$11 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 +$12 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$7 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +419%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$18 +559%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 5d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $20 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 11d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 39¢ $5 11d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 37¢ $5 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $12 12d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 12d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $6 12d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 12d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 12d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 26¢ $5 12d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 25¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 12d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $31 12d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 13d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $6 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $9 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 14d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 27¢ $5 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $9 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 259 history records