Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb2c…0f77 other 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$265 (-24%) realized −$266 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%28W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$214
politics 23% −$48
sports 11% +$50
crypto 7% −$19
world 6% −$21
economics 5% −$11
tech 4% +$7
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 14 -50.7% -55.4% 29% 29% -28.2%
all 82 -33.5% -39.9% 34% 29% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 29% -32.6%
10% -45.6% 22% -39.1%
15% -50.9% 13% -45.0%
20% -55.7% 13% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$266
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses28 / 54
Open positions5
Markets (closed)82 / 87
History coverage551d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $35 $40 +$6 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-27%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 20 $3 −$3 -95%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $9 +$8 +88%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $7 +$10 +145%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $15 +$4 +28%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $36 +$11 +29%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Sep 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? Sep 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Sep 22 $1 +$4 +300%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-21? Sep 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-20? Sep 21 $4 +$6 +163%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Sep 17 $18 +$3 +15%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 17 $2 $0 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 08 $21 +$13 +64%
Will Trump resign today? Sep 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Sep 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Solana reach $210 in August? Aug 25 $5 +$10 +194%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? Jul 07 $4 +$2 +54%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Jul 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jul 02 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +29%
US recession in 2025? Jun 19 $19 −$2 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
China-Vietnam trade deal before June? May 06 $100 −$85 -85%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Apr 06 $2 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $5 +$1 +13%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 04 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during tariff event on April 2? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Apr 02 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 23 $47 +$4 +8%
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $37 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 20d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 3¢ $3 25d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 26d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 28d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 40¢ $31 29d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL No 89¢ $18 31d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi SELL No 89¢ $18 31d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL No 96¢ $19 31d
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL No 94¢ $47 31d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY No 17¢ $8 31d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 47¢ $4 32d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY No 36¢ $1 32d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY No 36¢ $1 32d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 47¢ $1 32d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 47¢ $4 32d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY No 36¢ $1 32d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY No 36¢ $3 32d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY No 36¢ $1 32d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY No 36¢ $1 32d
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 32d
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 32d
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 32d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 75¢ $3 32d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 75¢ $3 32d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 75¢ $3 32d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 75¢ $6 32d
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.88 · official $72.88 (match) · 234 history records